Financial Crime and Corruption by Samuel Vaknin
4. Is symmetric (reversing the roles of the players
2371 words | Chapter 63
does not affect the solution).
The limitations of this approach are immediately evident.
It is definitely not geared to cope well with more complex,
multi-player, semi-cooperative (semi-competitive),
imperfect information situations.
Von Neumann proved that there is a solution for every
ZSG with 2 players, though it might require the
implementation of mixed strategies (strategies with
probabilities attached to every move and outcome).
Together with the economist Morgenstern, he developed
an approach to coalitions (cooperative efforts of one or
more players - a coalition of one player is possible).
Every coalition has a value - a minimal amount that the
coalition can secure using solely its own efforts and
resources. The function describing this value is super-
additive (the value of a coalition which is comprised of
two sub-coalitions equals, at least, the sum of the values
of the two sub-coalitions). Coalitions can be
epiphenomenal: their value can be higher than the
combined values of their constituents. The amounts paid
to the players equal the value of the coalition and each
player stands to get an amount no smaller than any
amount that he would have made on his own. A set of
payments to the players, describing the division of the
coalition's value amongst them, is the "imputation", a
single outcome of a strategy. A strategy is, therefore,
dominant, if: (1) each player is getting more under the
strategy than under any other strategy and (2) the players
in the coalition receive a total payment that does not
exceed the value of the coalition. Rational players are
likely to prefer the dominant strategy and to enforce it.
Thus, the solution to an n-players game is a set of
imputations. No single imputation in the solution must be
dominant (=better). They should all lead to equally
desirable results. On the other hand, all the imputations
outside the solution should be dominated. Some games are
without solution (Lucas, 1967).
Auman and Maschler tried to establish what is the right
payoff to the members of a coalition. They went about it
by enlarging upon the concept of bargaining (threats,
bluffs, offers and counter-offers). Every imputation was
examined, separately, whether it belongs in the solution
(=yields the highest ranked outcome) or not, regardless of
the other imputations in the solution. But in their theory,
every member had the right to "object" to the inclusion of
other members in the coalition by suggesting a different,
exclusionary, coalition in which the members stand to
gain a larger payoff. The player about to be excluded can
"counter-argue" by demonstrating the existence of yet
another coalition in which the members will get at least as
much as in the first coalition and in the coalition proposed
by his adversary, the "objector". Each coalition has, at
least, one solution.
The Game in GT is an idealized concept. Some of the
assumptions can - and should be argued against. The
number of agents in any game is assumed to be finite and
a finite number of steps is mostly incorporated into the
assumptions. Omissions are not treated as acts (though
negative ones). All agents are negligible in their
relationship to others (have no discernible influence on
them) - yet are influenced by them (their strategies are not
- but the specific moves that they select - are). The
comparison of utilities is not the result of any ranking -
because no universal ranking is possible. Actually, no
ranking common to two or n players is possible (rankings
are bound to differ among players). Many of the problems
are linked to the variant of rationality used in GT. It is
comprised of a clarity of preferences on behalf of the
rational agent and relies on the people's tendency to
converge and cluster around the right answer / move.
This, however, is only a tendency. Some of the time,
players select the wrong moves. It would have been much
wiser to assume that there are no pure strategies, that all
of them are mixed. Game Theory would have done well to
borrow mathematical techniques from quantum
mechanics. For instance: strategies could have been
described as wave functions with probability distributions.
The same treatment could be accorded to the cardinal
utility function. Obviously, the highest ranking (smallest
ordinal) preference should have had the biggest
probability attached to it - or could be treated as the
collapse event. But these are more or less known, even
trivial, objections. Some of them cannot be overcome. We
must idealize the world in order to be able to relate to it
scientifically at all. The idealization process entails the
incorporation of gross inaccuracies into the model and the
ignorance of other elements. The surprise is that the
approximation yields results, which tally closely with
reality - in view of its mutilation, affected by the model.
There are more serious problems, philosophical in nature.
It is generally agreed that "changing" the game can - and
very often does - move the players from a non-
cooperative mode (leading to Paretto-dominated results,
which are never desirable) - to a cooperative one. A
government can force its citizens to cooperate and to obey
the law. It can enforce this cooperation. This is often
called a Hobbesian dilemma. It arises even in a population
made up entirely of altruists. Different utility functions
and the process of bargaining are likely to drive these
good souls to threaten to become egoists unless other
altruists adopt their utility function (their preferences,
their bundles). Nash proved that there is an allocation of
possible utility functions to these agents so that the
equilibrium strategy for each one of them will be this kind
of threat. This is a clear social Hobbesian dilemma: the
equilibrium is absolute egoism despite the fact that all the
players are altruists. This implies that we can learn very
little about the outcomes of competitive situations from
acquainting ourselves with the psychological facts
pertaining to the players. The agents, in this example, are
not selfish or irrational - and, still, they deteriorate in their
behaviour, to utter egotism. A complete set of utility
functions - including details regarding how much they
know about one another's utility functions - defines the
available equilibrium strategies. The altruists in our
example are prisoners of the logic of the game. Only an
"outside" power can release them from their predicament
and permit them to materialize their true nature. Gauthier
said that morally-constrained agents are more likely to
evade Paretto-dominated outcomes in competitive games
- than agents who are constrained only rationally. But this
is unconvincing without the existence of an Hobesian
enforcement mechanism (a state is the most common
one). Players would do better to avoid Paretto dominated
outcomes by imposing the constraints of such a
mechanism upon their available strategies. Paretto
optimality is defined as efficiency, when there is no state
of things (a different distribution of resources) in which at
least one player is better off - with all the other no worse
off. "Better off" read: "with his preference satisfied". This
definitely could lead to cooperation (to avoid a bad
outcome) - but it cannot be shown to lead to the formation
of morality, however basic. Criminals can achieve their
goals in splendid cooperation and be content, but that does
not make it more moral. Game theory is agent neutral, it is
utilitarianism at its apex. It does not prescribe to the agent
what is "good" - only what is "right". It is the ultimate
proof that effort at reconciling utilitarianism with more
deontological, agent relative, approaches are dubious, in
the best of cases. Teleology, in other words, in no
guarantee of morality.
Acts are either means to an end or ends in themselves.
This is no infinite regression. There is bound to be an holy
grail (happiness?) in the role of the ultimate end. A more
commonsense view would be to regard acts as means and
states of affairs as ends. This, in turn, leads to a
teleological outlook: acts are right or wrong in accordance
with their effectiveness at securing the achievement of the
right goals. Deontology (and its stronger version,
absolutism) constrain the means. It states that there is a
permitted subset of means, all the other being immoral
and, in effect, forbidden. Game Theory is out to shatter
both the notion of a finite chain of means and ends
culminating in an ultimate end - and of the deontological
view. It is consequentialist but devoid of any value
judgement.
Game Theory pretends that human actions are breakable
into much smaller "molecules" called games. Human acts
within these games are means to achieving ends but the
ends are improbable in their finality. The means are
segments of "strategies": prescient and omniscient
renditions of the possible moves of all the players. Aside
from the fact that it involves mnemic causation (direct and
deterministic influence by past events) and a similar
influence by the utility function (which really pertains to
the future) - it is highly implausible. Additionally, Game
Theory is mired in an internal contradiction: on the one
hand it solemnly teaches us that the psychology of the
players is absolutely of no consequence. On the other, it
hastens to explicitly and axiomatically postulate their
rationality and implicitly (and no less axiomatically) their
benefit-seeking behaviour (though this aspect is much
more muted). This leads to absolutely outlandish results:
irrational behaviour leads to total cooperation, bounded
rationality leads to more realistic patterns of cooperation
and competition (coopetition) and an unmitigated rational
behaviour leads to disaster (also known as Paretto
dominated outcomes).
Moreover, Game Theory refuses to acknowledge that real
games are dynamic, not static. The very concepts of
strategy, utility function and extensive (tree like)
representation are static. The dynamic is retrospective, not
prospective. To be dynamic, the game must include all the
information about all the actors, all their strategies, all
their utility functions. Each game is a subset of a higher
level game, a private case of an implicit game which is
constantly played in the background, so to say. This is a
hyper-game of which all games are but derivatives. It
incorporates all the physically possible moves of all the
players. An outside agency with enforcement powers (the
state, the police, the courts, the law) are introduced by the
players. In this sense, they are not really an outside event
which has the effect of altering the game fundamentally.
They are part and parcel of the strategies available to the
players and cannot be arbitrarily ruled out. On the
contrary, their introduction as part of a dominant strategy
will simplify Game theory and make it much more
applicable. In other words: players can choose to compete,
to cooperate and to cooperate in the formation of an
outside agency. There is no logical or mathematical
reason to exclude the latter possibility. The ability to thus
influence the game is a legitimate part of any real life
strategy. Game Theory assumes that the game is a given -
and the players have to optimize their results within it. It
should open itself to the inclusion of game altering or
redefining moves by the players as an integral part of their
strategies. After all, games entail the existence of some
agreement to play and this means that the players accept
some rules (this is the role of the prosecutor in the
Prisoners' Dilemma). If some outside rules (of the game)
are permissible - why not allow the "risk" that all the
players will agree to form an outside, lawfully binding,
arbitration and enforcement agency - as part of the game?
Such an agency will be nothing if not the embodiment, the
materialization of one of the rules, a move in the players'
strategies, leading them to more optimal or superior
outcomes as far as their utility functions are concerned.
Bargaining inevitably leads to an agreement regarding a
decision making procedure. An outside agency, which
enforces cooperation and some moral code, is such a
decision making procedure. It is not an "outside" agency
in the true, physical, sense. It does not "alter" the game
(not to mention its rules). It IS the game, it is a procedure,
a way to resolve conflicts, an integral part of any solution
and imputation, the herald of cooperation, a representative
of some of the will of all the players and, therefore, a part
both of their utility functions and of their strategies to
obtain their preferred outcomes. Really, these outside
agencies ARE the desired outcomes. Once Game Theory
digests this observation, it could tackle reality rather than
its own idealized contraptions.
XLII. Market Impeders and Market Inefficiencies
Even the most devout proponents of free marketry and
hidden hand theories acknowledge the existence of market
failures, market imperfections and inefficiencies in the
allocation of economic resources. Some of these are the
results of structural problems, others of an accumulation
of historical liabilities. But, strikingly, some of the
inefficiencies are the direct outcomes of the activities of
"non bona fide" market participants. These "players"
(individuals, corporations, even larger economic bodies,
such as states) act either irrationally or egotistically (too
rationally).
What characterizes all those "market impeders" is that
they are value subtractors rather than value adders. Their
activities generate a reduction, rather than an increase, in
the total benefits (utilities) of all the other market players
(themselves included). Some of them do it because they
are after a self interest which is not economic (or, more
strictly, financial). They sacrifice some economic benefits
in order to satisfy that self interest (or, else, they could
never have attained these benefits, in the first place).
Others refuse to accept the self interest of other players as
their limit. They try to maximize their benefits at any cost,
as long as it is a cost to others. Some do so legally and
some adopt shadier varieties of behaviour. And there is a
group of parasites - participants in the market who feed
off its very inefficiencies and imperfections and, by their
very actions, enhance them. A vicious cycle ensues: the
body economic gives rise to parasitic agents who thrive on
its imperfections and lead to the amplification of the very
impurities that they prosper on.
We can distinguish six classes of market impeders:
Reading Tips
Use arrow keys to navigate
Press 'N' for next chapter
Press 'P' for previous chapter